"J. van Baardwijk" wrote:
>
> At 21:47 20-2-2003 -0600, Julia Thompson wrote:
>
> > > I'd think that 10% of the US citizens is a force to be reckoned with -- 10%
> > > of the population equals a hell of a lot of voters.
> >
> >The question is, what proportion of that 10% actually votes? If it's below
> >the average, then it's not that big a deal. If *all* of them vote, then
> >that *would* be a force to be reckoned with.
>
> If you were a politician, and the elections were coming up, would you take
> the risk of considering the opinion of those 10% of the population "not
> that big a deal"? In America's two-party system, the votes of those 10% (or
> even 5%) could make the difference between a major victory and an
> overwelming defeat.
I'd study what proportion of them were likely to vote.
If they were a lot more likely to vote than the average citizen, then I'd be
a lot more concerned than if they were only 30% as likely to vote than the
average citizen.
Also, it would depend on what office I were running for.
If it were the Congressional district I live in, I doubt that the current
Congressman would have much to worry about from that group, because the
demographics of this district would likely have a much smaller
representation than the 10% given above. If I lived in the Congressional
district Marvin lives in, I would be a lot more concerned, because there's a
much higher proportion of them than the 10%. Then again, *that* Congressman
feels more closely to the way that 10% feels than *my* Congressman does, so
he has less to fear from that group than a challenger probably would.
(These are the two members of Congress I know the most about off the top of
my head.)
Beyond that, at the state or national level, I'd go with the study on how
likely they were to vote before I changed my actions with respect to their
opinion.
Politics gets to be a very pragmatic game. Figuring out just who you're
dealing with goes a long way.
Julia
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