----- Original Message -----
From: "Gautam Mukunda" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
To: "Killer Bs Discussion" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Sent: Tuesday, February 18, 2003 1:35 PM
Subject: Re: EU Warns Iraq It Faces 'Last Chance'
> --- Dan Minette <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> > It may be silly, but it does seem to reflect the
> > popular opinion better
> > than the leaders who support the US. What I read
> > indicates that Blair may
> > lose his position as Prime Minister if push comes to
> > shove and there is a
> > war without UN sponsorship. Do you think this is
> > unlikely, and if so, why?
> > If it doe happen, won't it accentuate the US/Europe
> > rift? How far could
> > such a rift go?
> >
> > Dan M.
>
> I don't think he's in any real danger of losing his
> position, really. First, because there's no logical
> successor to him in the Labor Party that I can see,
> and the Conservatives are (to be kind) a joke.
Laborites on other lists are giving names of folks they would prefer.
> Second, because I don't think that British opinion is
> nearly as opposed to war as most of the press is
> saying (see a series of posts on Instapundit on that
> topic).
British folks of various opinions on the wisdom of the war (both for and
against) seem to accept the statement that a recent poll has shown that 70%
of the people in Great Britian are against any war in Iraq without a clear
UN mandate. Do you dispute this, or is it just that you think it is a soft
number.
>And third, and most importantly, because I think that the war will go well
and be very, very
> short.
Very well does mean more than a victory with few casualties on the part of
US army, right? Relatively few civilian casualties, not much street
fighting with civilians caught in the cross fire, etc.
> Such a campaign would, I think, have a transformative
> effect on public opinion in Britain at least, and
> probably in the rest of Europe as well. If (as I
> think probable) we see American soldiers arriving in
> Baghdad greeted as liberators, with Iraqis dancing in
> the streets in celebration - something that we _did_
> see in Afghanistan, despite the fact that the _very
> same people_ opposing the war told us:
> 1. It would be a military disaster ("Afghanistan, the
> breaker of empires!") and
> 2. The Afghani people would hate us ("The hardened
> guerrilla fighters of Afghanistan..."
Aren't they just ignoring us? Does the central government control more than
the capital? Aren't the warlords really running things the way the use to?
At least the sampling of European thought that I'm getting indicates that
the peception in Europe is that the US has become bored with Afganistan now
that it has won. It keeps on searching for Taliban and AQ, but is isn't
very involved with nation building. While I think that's a bit of an
overstatement, I have to agree that a third of a billion dollars is not
much of an investment for nation building.
> How will public opinion in Britain change when those
> scenes are shown on the BBC? When Iraqi political
> prisoners freed by American soldiers testify about how
> they were tortured? When Iraqi government files
> testifying to WMD testing and development are
> discovered? That is what will save Tony Blair, if he
> is in danger.
Well, we're about to find out. My guess is that there will be enough
trouble with nationbuilding in Iraq for those opposed to the war to say "I
told you so." I have little doubts about the ability of the US forces to
crush the Republican Guard. I have great doubts about the US being able to
pull off nation building in Iraq. I think the adminstration is vastly
underestimating the task.
>It's not Bush and
> Blair who are in a corner, but Chirac and Schroeder,
> who have staked their political survival on a
> catastrophically failed campaign in Iraq. Betting
> against the success of the American military has been,
> for the last 20 years or so, an extremely stupid bet.
> The odds are, I think, that it will be again.
I can't see how you read this. Its not the war that's hard to win, its the
peace afterwards. I see plenty of opportunities for people to point out
where mistakes are made. Do you really think that setting up even a
quasi-democracy with a middle class will be that straightforward? No one
is arguing that the US will lose the war, they are arguing what will happen
after the US wins.
Dan M.
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