On 2022-10-19 04:29, Sergej Kotliar via bitcoin-dev wrote:
The biggest risk
in accepting bitcoin payments is in fact not zeroconf risk (it's
actually quite easily managed), it's FX risk as the merchant must
commit to a certain BTCUSD rate ahead of time for a purchase. Over
time some transactions lose money to FX and others earn money - that
evens out in the end. But if there is an _easily accessible in the
wallet_ feature to "cancel transaction" that means it will eventually
get systematically abused.

One way to address this risk is by turning it into a certainty. If the price of BTC increases between when the invoice is generated and when a transaction is included in a block, give the customer a future purchase credit equal in value to the difference between the price they paid and the value of the purchase at confirmation time. Now there's no benefit to the customer from canceling their transaction.

Of course, this means that the merchant will always either break even or lose money on the exchange rate part of the transaction and will need to raise their prices accordingly. I can see how that would be unappealing to implement, but it seems better to me to address the incentive incompatibility you've raised rather than hope no large miners ever start performing full RBF. Plus, maybe the future credit feature is something customers would like: I know I've been sad several times when the exchange rate changed significantly while I was waiting for one of my transactions to confirm.

The above mitigation is also compatible with LN payments. For example, a merchant today might issue an LN invoice that expires in 10 minutes. The customer can wait for most of that time to elapse to see how the exchange rate changes before deciding to pay, obtaining the same American call option. If they are instead offered a future purchase credit for any gains, the customer doesn't suffer any opportunity cost by paying immediately. (With LN, it might be possible to have a better UX for this by either refunding any excess or (if using something like Original AMP or PTLCs) not claiming any parts of the payment which are in excess.)

-Dave
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