-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE----- Hash: SHA512 On 2015/12/19 08:49, jl2012 via bitcoin-dev wrote: > P2SH has been introduced for 3.5 years and only about 10% of > bitcoin is stored this way (I can't find proportion of existing > P2SH address). A 1-year adoption rate of 40% for segwit is clearly > over-optimistic unless the tx fee becomes really high.
I don't think one can necessarily conflate P2SH and SegWit uptake. In the case of P2SH, there's the "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" problem. P2PKH works just fine for an awful lot of Bitcoin users. Why should they switch over to P2SH? In the absence of a compelling reason, they'll probably stick to a proven solution. (You can see that line of thinking anywhere.) Even Armory, which values security and whiz-bang features over usability, offers P2SH but keeps it off by default. Meanwhile, SegWit fixes multiple problems, or at least fixes some while also sticking a bit of gum on others. True, it'll rely on wallet uptake. I just think wallet developers will see the value in it. The big question, of course, is when they'll enable it by default, which is the only way SegWit will gain serious traction. My personal, semi-educated guess is that you'll see 3-6 months of wallet integration and testnet tweaking, then another 3-6 months of mainnet availability if explicitly enabled by the user, and finally the switch being thrown for all wallet users. I'm hoping for the aggressive timeframes. I'm expecting the conservative ones. Is 40% optimistic? Maybe, and I'd personally like to see it enabled in concert with a minimal block size increase. I don't think 40% within a year of deployment is out of the realm of possibility, though. - -- - --- Douglas Roark Cryptocurrency, network security, travel, and art. https://onename.com/droark joro...@vt.edu PGP key ID: 26623924 -----BEGIN PGP SIGNATURE----- Comment: GPGTools - https://gpgtools.org iQIcBAEBCgAGBQJWdgI/AAoJEEOBHRomYjkkZwsP/iZT+qa/Yp2xIE6ConcTrbbx IOmz6h4O+ro/Egx/6XrukBSRybn8gsjize279WQWjR0h7O3KS4YAGuR/TKx6IrOw cz7lZpwC08ZcZb83fUqEqz4q/Rbgp4cPU8WU1niLCYg2OCGqtTEhSSRatmO1ULXp 6KJrBCaoVBzaoqFXx6nXiJF/K1dKZsb/IuFFJZisXEmoDkvTunE82sjHZ+JgmHk9 jhhlk+JU43C7lXXkk+3KPbD+z3dMZNDYrIopaWOUXfk6yXIp8cy7MUK/z58PCm8C V/pTk0edkMIRxu6ybJLKNNZHqhSQipyEMfG/CojVb6Qtt8zC0RIEUsYj5uDk9RQL ITxql9RtPHQPx+uoxoCr7Zitx0448YFNpQs6S5/g81vDt7ilh5k5PgnILkMvuA7Y F6abFvsP/ahmAkisiyDzwMmcM+xzxvJkaY9aDvKy4NNiFw8kUxkAJ2VlMeQvwVTK 2ePzyrFTOGFJRk/a1uTr0aUOxpCdI8rB1O6jcrhmLl2ENRMjN1I3Ksl79Q6h3P+F zj3hR9CyuXrzoPxAISYF58ot32fil9nEnLcchu2mdWArYKBY2IDWVv7JiK8RCJ8b 2XymxccKsXIUHTrYJfrHg+AeRHkVuV8emyUp95A/8kb8meWbLbmpxOrt6JLEE4k9 qsl9Zkg/0IsCr+JzE6Ko =696M -----END PGP SIGNATURE----- _______________________________________________ bitcoin-dev mailing list bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/mailman/listinfo/bitcoin-dev
