Maybe Jeff can clarify but my communications with him seemed to imply
he didn't think any kind of difficulty penalty scheme is workable. I
strongly dispute that assertion.

On Thu, Sep 3, 2015 at 7:23 PM, Jorge Timón
<bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org> wrote:
> Greg, I believe Jeff is focusing on BtcDrak's proposal (
> https://gist.github.com/btcdrak/1c3a323100a912b605b5 ) where the
> increased nBits are used to vote for the block size to raise
> permanently ( or until it gets voted down).
> His arguments don't seem to apply to your original proposal (where the
> size is only increased for that block).
>
>
> On Thu, Sep 3, 2015 at 7:57 PM, Gregory Maxwell via bitcoin-dev
> <bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org> wrote:
>> On Thu, Sep 3, 2015 at 2:40 PM, Jeff Garzik <jgar...@gmail.com> wrote:
>>> Expanding on pay-with-diff and volatility (closing comment),
>>>
>>> Users and miners will have significant difficulty creating and/or predicting
>>> a stable block size (and fee environment) with pay-with-diff across the
>>> months.  The ability of businesses to plan is low.  Chaos and
>>> unpredictability are bad in general for markets and systems.  Thus the
>>> binary conclusion of "not get used" or "volatility"
>>
>> Sorry, I'm still not following.  I agree that predictability is important.
>>
>> I don't follow where unpredictability is coming from here. Most (all?)
>> of the difficulty based adjustments had small limits on the difficulty
>> change that wouldn't have substantially changed the interblock times
>> relative to orphaning.
>>
>>> It's written as 'a' and/or 'b'.  If you don't have idle hashpower, then 
>>> paying with difficulty requires some amount of collusion ('a')
>>> Any miner paying with a higher difficulty either needs idle hashpower, or 
>>> self-increase their own difficulty at the possible opportunity cost of 
>>> losing an entire block's income to another miner who doesn't care about 
>>> changing the block size.  The potential loss does not economically 
>>> compensate for size increase gains in most cases, when you consider the 
>>> variability of blocks (they come in bursts and pauses) and the fee income 
>>> that would be associated
>>
>> What the schemes propose is blocksize that increases fast with
>> difficulty over a narrow window. The result is that your odds of
>> producing a block are slightly reduced but the block you produce if
>> you do is more profitable: but only if there is a good supply of
>> transactions which pay real fees compariable to the ones you're
>> already taking.  The same trade-off exists at the moment with respect
>> to orphaning risk and miners still produce large blocks, producing a
>> larger block means a greater chance you're not successful (due to
>> orphaning) but you have a greater utility.  The orphing mediated risk
>> is fragile and can be traded off for centeralization advantage or by
>> miners bypassing validation, issues which at least so far we have no
>> reason to believe exist for size mediated schemes.
>>
>> As you know, mining is not a race (ignoring edge effects with
>> orphaning/propagation time). Increasing difficulty does not put you at
>> an expected return disavantage compared to other miners so long as the
>> income increases at least proportionally (otherwise pooling with low
>> diff shares would be an astronomically losing proposition :)!).
>>
>> Pay-for-size schemes have been successfully used in some altcoins
>> without the effects you're suggesting.
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