Hi everyone,
For the spring migration season I am going to try to post weekly "migration forecasts", with predictions for the following 6 days. These are mainly focused on southern Ontario, as that is the region I am most familiar with, but I will include comments on other areas of Ontario occasionally. *Please note that these are just my personal predictions & are by no means a sure thing. So if you consult only this to plan your trips, don't blame me if there aren't many birds that day : ) Ontario Migration Forecast - March 11th - April 17th Overview After a bit of a slower/colder weekend, things will really be starting to pick up throughout this week. Two low pressure systems will be passing through during the week, bringing strong south/southwest winds from the gulf coast into Ontario. This means it should be a great week for new migrants arriving in the province (tailwinds for migrating birds in the spring are good), and also we could see some of the first ratites of the spring showing up. In Ontario, the typical peak of “rarity season” starts off around April 23rd and runs through until late May. Depending on the year rarities can begin showing up around the 2nd/3rd week of April though. - Likely New Arrivals This Week; - Black-crowned Night-Heron - Lesser Yellowlegs - Pectoral Sandpiper - American Golden-Plover - Dunlin - Sora - Broad-winged Hawk - Caspian Tern - Common Tern - Forester’s Tern - Northern Rough-winged Swallow - Cliff Swallow - Purple Martin - Ruby-crowned Kinglet - Eastern Towhee - Pine Warbler - Yellow-rumped Warbler - Brown Thrasher - Migrants arriving in large numbers: - Blue-winged Teal - American Wigeon - Green-winged Teal - Northern Pintail - Pied-billed Grebe - Greater Yellowlegs - Wilson’s Snipe - Double-crested Cormorants - Osprey - Bonaparte’s Gull - Great Egret - Common Loon - Red-throated Loon - American Kestrel - Sharp-shinned Hawk - Red-shouldered Hawk - Belted Kingfisher - Tree Swallow - Brown Creeper - Hermit Thrush - Winter Wren - Golden-crowned Kinglet - Rusty Blackbird - Northern Flicker - Yellow-bellied Sapsucker - American Bittern - Chipping Sparrow - Swamp Sparrow - Savannah Sparrow - Vesper Sparrow - Field Sparrow - Rarities to look for this week: - Eurasian Wigeon and Cinnamon Teal (wetlands/sewage lagoons) - Neotropic Cormorant (Lake Erie & Lake Ontario, mixed in with flocks of Double-crested) - Black-necked Stilt (especially in Essex County…. Hillman marsh I’m looking at you) - Rare geese mixed in with Canada and Snow Goose flocks in Eastern Ontario Daily Forecasts - Monday, April 11th A low pressure system moving over Michigan will bring southwest wind and rain into southern Ontario. There will likely be scattered rain for a lot of province, but birds will still be moving in good numbers. Expect a large influx in new migrants, especially around southwestern Ontario. - Tuesday, April 12th The wind will be very light/almost nonexistent wind out of the south during the day, but the skies should be clear and it will be quite warm (high double digits for some of the south). I expect it will be a really good day fo migration for all of southern Ontario, and large numbers of new migrants should be arriving. It should also be a good day for hawkwatching in southern Ontario. - Wednesday, April 13th Another low pressure system will be moving up the Midwest, bringing more long distance southwest wind and warm temperatures into the province. There could be quite a lot of rain and possibly thunderstorm during the day… which to me means the birding has the potential to be pretty interesting (in terms of rare birds/new arrivals). It will likely be a fairly wet and windy day to be outside though. - Thursday, April 14th West/southwest winds, more rain and warm temperatures for southern Ontario, as the low pressure continues northward over Michigan. Similar to the previous days, birds will still be arriving in good numbers ~ it might just be a bit wet out birding. The winds are mainly west at this point, which is less favourable than southwest (birds are mainly moving from the south, not the west). Overall though it should be a good day of birding. - Friday, April 15th More southwest/west winds, but a lower chance of precipitation during the day. Another warm day, and birds will definitely be moving. It should be another enjoyable day of birding in southern Ontario, with good numbers of new birds arriving. - Saturday April 16th/Sunday April 17th It’s pretty far in the future to know how things will play out for sure… 6+ days away tends to be fantasy land, especially in the spring when forecasts are more unreliable. As of right now though the weekend looks alright for birding, though colder than the majorly of the week with light north winds. There will still be a lot of birds to find that arrived during the last week though. *Summary* Overall it should be a good week of birding in southern Ontario. There will be a noticeable increase in birds compared to the past week as more new migrants will arrive. Something interesting to note this time of year through the spring… severe weather (thunderstorm & tornados) in the southern United States is often good for us in Ontario from a rare bird standpoint. On Tuesday/Wednesday, there will be a good chance of severe weather in the southwestern states, which followed by strong, long distance southwest winds bodes well for us in Ontario. Of course predicting rare birds involves a lot of guesswork, but I think a few decent rarities will show up this week… especially later in the week towards the weekend (birds that arrive during those storms, but aren’t found for a few days). I think a good bet would be Black-necked Stilt in Essex County… maybe at Hillman Marsh on Wednesday or Thursday. As far as general birding goes, the best days will likely be Tuesday or later in the week (if you want to avoid rain). The most productive areas will likely be the counties around southern Lake Huron, Lake Erie and western Lake Ontario. Honestly though every day this should be good fun in its own way, so get out there! Websites that I use frequently Windy (wind, temperature, precipitation and more) - windy.com Birdcast (good for large scale trends) - https://birdcast.info Accueweather (an easier to read weather site that is normally accurate) - https://www.accuweather.com If anyone is on Twitter, I post almost daily about weather birding related things. My handle is @ONweatherbirder -- Ontbirds and Birdnews are moderated email Listservs provided by the Ontario Field Ornithologists (OFO) as a service to all birders in Ontario. Birdnews is reserved for announcements, location summaries, first of year reports, etc. To post a message on Birdnews, send an email to: [email protected]. If you have any questions or concerns, contact the Birdnews Moderators by email at [email protected]. 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