Everyone Some of James's points are certainly valid, but I must disagree with others.
Here are some points as I think of them: #1 Presumably an escaped waterfowl could live for several years after getting away, and presumably it could move quite a distance from its escape point. Therefore, I don't consider it valid to tie a recent escape with a subsequent sighting (unless we were talking about something like less than a mile away, for example). In other words, an escaped bird could theoretically be found years later and hundreds (thousands) of miles away. If sightings could theoretically pertain to either recent or long-term escapees, then in theory neither is a valid argument for the topic at hand. Thus in particular, to me the fact that a Smew escaped "about a month ago" in New York about "50 km south of Buffalo" means nothing to me in respect to the current Smew on the St. Lawrence River. #2 If Smew and other waterfowl are potentially escaping on a somewhat regular basis, why is it that birds seen in the field are being seen during expected times of the year -- ie. spring, fall and winter? In the case of Ontario Smew records, all are late fall or winter, and two in early spring. As for other rare waterfowl species, if the source for sightings is escapees, why have we never seen a Tufted Duck in July? Or September? Or a Smew in August? If the source for the majority of sightings is supposedly escapees, one would expect that sightings should be distributed evenly (more-or-less) throughout the year. #3 Yes we all know that waterfowl escape. But for every single bird that does escapes, there could well be 20, 50 or 100 birds of wild origin that are also occurring. If so, statistically such a scenario would easily (and correctly) explain why virtually all rare waterfowl are indeed recorded when and where they are expected. "When" being fall, winter and spring. "Where" being the Northeast and Alaska/Pacific Coast for Tufted Duck (and basically for Smew and Eurasian Teal as well), other species falling correctly into place as well. One exception, however, would be Barnacle Goose. We KNOW there are lots of these in captivity, and some do escape. And in fact there are Ontario records for virtually every month of the year. But we also know that at least one Barnacle Goose in Ontario is of wild origin, since it was banded and traced back to Ireland. But with this species, clearly the vast majority of birds are indeed escapees, and only a very, very, few are wild (and perhaps none beyond the banded bird). Thus it totally makes sense that reported sightings for this species in Ontario would be spread out over the entire calendar year. Personally I believe it is the total opposite for the other species being discussed here -- a very, very limited number of escapees, versus many of wild origin. #4 What is the percentage of Baikal Teal and Falcated Duck in waterfowl collections versus other rare waterfowl including Smew? If they are basically the same (or even close), it would be easy to then ask why Tufted Duck is reported in the field often, but Baikal Teal and Falcated Duck is not. See #3 above. #5 Smew, like the related Hooded Merganser, prefers freshwater environments, so I don't think "a widespread incursion ... especially along the coasts" would be a requirement for a bird to appear in Ontario. Furthermore, it is actually far more likely that wild Smews in Ontario would be originating from eastern Siberia (via Alaska) rather than the East Coast. Decades ago I well remember that a couple of OBRC members refused to accept any Painted Bunting occurrences in Ontario as wild, because "someone in downtown Toronto was selling Painted Buntings in a pet shop." Thankfully we have moved on from that scenario. Alan Wormington Leamington, Ontario ---------- Forwarded Message ---------- From: JAMES HOLDSWORTH <[email protected]> To: Frank Pinilla <[email protected]>, ONTBIRDS <[email protected]> Subject: Re: [Ontbirds] Fwd: Smew - provenance comments Date: Wed, 23 Dec 2015 15:55:52 +0000 (UTC) To follow-up on Franks' excellent discussion regarding the St. Lawrence Smew origin question, I would like to add a bit of context, especially in regards to the 2011-12 Whitby / Long Point Smew record, as Frank did reference me indirectly in his e-mail. Here is a summary e-mail that I submitted to the OBRC regarding the potential origin of that 2011-12 Smew..... ''Just finishing talking with the waterfowl breeder [from Aylmer, near St. Thomas] who lost two Smew in an ice-storm in March 2011. Out of respect to his privacy, I agreed to keep his name out of discussions. He lost 6 birds in the ice-storm and recovered 4 of those birds. The two birds not recovered were both males although he could not be certain of age. Ross Snider [an expert on the species - having kept many in the past] did see photo's of the Whitby Smew and thought it was an adult bird coming out of eclipse. I would think, without a widespread incursion of this species [which there wasn't], especially along the coasts, the only logical or statistical conclusion would be that the Ontario Smew records very likely [like 99%] refer to these escapees - as much as the birding community would love to think otherwise. I have talked at length with the late Ross Snider in regards to extra-limital waterfowl in Ontario and the likelihood of escapees. He indicated that many breeders [including himself] commonly kept many of the species that seem to occur with some frequency in the great lakes region [Tufted Duck, Gargany, even Common Eider] and that more discretion [or at least more consultation] would be prudent in vetting these records. Birds like Baikal and Falcated Teal are most certainly escapes, unless there was overwhelming evidence to the contrary. If we want to open a whole other can of worms, it should be noted that there are several keepers / breeders of hummingbirds and exotic songbirds in Ontario as well as Quebec. I say this, as Ontario has an [accepted] record of Eurasian Blackbird, when there are no other mainland NA records and this species was known to be kept by breeders in the Toronto area when the record occurred. I have long had trouble with the probability of this record as a genuine vagrant. In the end, some of these records will be impossible to fully verify, but when the evidence seems to point in one direction it makes sense to err on the side of caution - even if it means missing a tick.....'' In the case of the 2011-12 Smew, I felt there was overwhelming evidence [or at least massive statistical likelihood] that this record pertained to one of the Aylmer birds but - alas - the record was still accepted as genuine. My thinking was - when presented with a very likely scenario [known escapee] or an extremely dubious scenario [genuine vagrant from 1000's of miles away], the likely one has to be chosen. Of course, asking a birder to remove a tick from their list is like asking for a kidney.... According to the late and great Ross Snider, there is no coincidence that many rare waterfowl records have occurred in and around the Great Lakes as he felt there was a concentration of waterfowl keepers in this area. He also said that the influence of waterfowl keepers was understated, as birders often assumed only a few, scattered collectors within or adjacent to the province, when [in fact] there were many dozens. I have usually been met with a storm of rebuttal when posting about vagrant origin, but [in light of Franks findings] I think it important for Ontario bird records to be both consistent and reliable. And, I do say this in all hypocrisy, having not submitted any records since 2001.......;] Cheers, James Holdsworth, Biological Consulting Services 14 Marian St, RR#1 Woodstock, [email protected] ________________________________ From: Frank Pinilla <[email protected]> To: ONTBIRDS <[email protected]> Sent: Tuesday, December 22, 2015 11:31 PM Subject: [Ontbirds] Fwd: Smew - provenance comments Good evening ONTBIRDS subscribers, I thought that Ontario's birders (and those outside Ontario who may want to visit) should have all available information regarding such a rare species for eastern North America (even anywhere outside the Aleutian Islands, Alaska). Whether this changes your mind on the provenance of the bird on the St. Lawrence River or not is your respective opinion. I started looking into it because I recalled a note from someone after the Whitby Harbour bird sightings (which I twitched too), speaking to a couple of escaped collector's Smew at that time. I've done some searching through ebird to see what other sightings have been noted in eastern North America, because I would think that with a Eurasian species such as this, there would be more sightings along the east coast, with relatively fewer in the interior of the continent (as with species like Tufted Duck). It became immediately obvious that this was not the case and that only two sightings came from the coast, one was well-reported in Newport, Rhode Island in 1976, with 1 report from a little west of that site in 1978, also in Rhode Island. Outside of those two sightings there have been no other reports from the east coast (in ebird). The remainder of eastern North American sightings come from the Great Lakes, starting with one in 1960 along the Niagara River, another at Normandale (Long Point area) in 1973 and then the last 3 in 2011 (Whitby), 2012 (Long Point) & 2015 (Cornwall). There was also one noted from the western tip of Lake Superior in Wisconsin back in 2000. Link to ebird Smew sightings here: http://goo.gl/1V2YzM It is possible that there are other sightings of Smew that have not been accepted and thus don't show up in ebird in a quick search like I've done but with such a rare bird, all big listers and serious birders living within a couple of hours reach (and beyond) of a bird this rare in North America, would be out twitching, many of which would have uploaded those sightings to ebird. I then searched for Smew with waterfowl collectors and found a Rosemary Miner who owns a huge aviary in New York State, about 50km south of Buffalo, with a direct line to the Lake Erie shoreline being about 40km as the Smew flies. I decided to e-mail Ms. Miner to ask whether she's lost any waterfowl lately, and the response was a bit of a shocker, she immediately said that she had lost a female Smew approximately 1 month ago when a tree fell on the aviary and tore it open. She does not pinion her birds...the two aviaries are so large that she has her ducks & geese flying from one to another - her website claims that she has the largest aviary in the world. I don't want to rain on anyone's parade, I'd love to add this species to my list as much as the next birder, but this information, in my opinion is key to understanding this bird's provenance - I think too coincidental for it to be a truly wild bird, but once again, this is your decision. I post this to ensure other birders make a fully-informed decision upon whether they make the trek to look for this bird near Cornwall, Ontario. Best regards & good birding, Frank Pinilla Richmond Hill, ON PS - I did ask whether she had any Pink-footed Geese in her collection, to which she said no and I also asked whether she knew of any others with PFGO, she said no. _______________________________________________ ONTBIRDS is presented by the Ontario Field Ornithologists - the provincial birding organization. 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Send bird reports to [email protected] For information about ONTBIRDS including how to unsubscribe visit http://www.ofo.ca/site/page/view/information.ontbirdssetup Posting guidelines can be found at http://www.ofo.ca/site/page/view/information.ontbirdsguide
