Agreed that we can park this for now, provided we can come up with a measurable 
turning point (let’s say, where the trend points to 1-2 years from exhaustion) 
where we should revive the discussion.

-C

> On Apr 8, 2016, at 1:39 PM, Brian Jones <[email protected]> wrote:
> 
> I believe the current practice is sufficient for now. If a sudden run on 
> 2-byte ASN's occurs this issue should be resurrected at that time. 
> 
> --
> Brian​ E Jones​
> 
> --
> Brian
> 
> On Fri, Apr 8, 2016 at 12:06 PM, Andrew Dul <[email protected] 
> <mailto:[email protected]>> wrote:
> Do other members of the ARIN community believe that the current policy and 
> operational practice is sufficient for now, or are there policy changes 
> needed at this time?
> 
> Thanks,
> Andrew
> 
> On 4/7/2016 12:24 PM, Scott Leibrand wrote:
>> Thanks, John.
>> 
>> It sounds to me like ARIN is already doing the right thing (saving 2-byte 
>> ASNs for people who specifically want them), and that is sufficient for the 
>> time being.  It does not appear that additional restrictions on who may 
>> request a 2-byte ASN are necessary at this time.  If at some point 5+ years 
>> down the road the rate of 2-byte ASN demand starts to exceed the recovered 
>> supply and the 2-byte ASN inventory is depleted, we can consider a waiting 
>> list and/or technical requirements for requesting a 2-byte ASN at that time.
>> 
>> Is there any other reason we need to consider taking action sooner?  Was 
>> there something else I'm missing that prompted ARIN staff to start the 
>> consultation process around a 2-byte ASN waiting list?
>> 
>> -Scott
>> 
>> On Thu, Apr 7, 2016 at 11:44 AM, John Curran <[email protected] 
>> <mailto:[email protected]>> wrote:
>> Folks -
>> 
>> Please forgive this omnibus email of information, but we've had sufficient 
>> individual
>> questions for 2-byte ASN data that it simply made more sense to provide one 
>> full
>> summary rather than reply to each question individually...
>> 
>> ARIN continues to have classic, 2-byte, AS numbers in inventory. Over the 
>> last few
>> years, we have received small blocks of them in our new delegations from the 
>> IANA,
>> obtained them from customer returns of AS numbers, or through revocations of 
>> AS
>> numbers due to non-payment of registration fees.
>> 
>> Our last AS block delegation from IANA was on 29 April 2015.  We received 99 
>> 2-byte
>> ASNs and 925 4-byte ASNs at that time, and do not expect to receive any 
>> additional
>> 2-byte ASNs from the IANA in future delegations.  The 2-byte ASNs received 
>> from the
>> IANA in 2015 were added to the inventory and placed on hold.  The reason 
>> that the
>> 2-byte ASNs were put on hold is that was not responsible to issue from the 
>> dwindling
>> quantity of these resources to parties that did not specifically request 
>> such while we
>> were still receiving AS number requests specifically asking for 2-byte AS 
>> numbers.
>> 
>> As of today, we currently have the following 2-byte ASNs in ARIN inventory:
>> 
>>        387 2-byte AS numbers on hold (most were routed at some point)
>>        535 2-byte AS numbers revoked
>>        133 2-byte AS numbers returned
>> 
>>   = 1,055 2-byte AS numbers returned/revoked/held (Total)
>> 
>> Customers requesting ASNs receive a 4-byte ASN by default.  If a request 
>> comes in
>> that specifically requests a 2-byte ASN, we inform the customer that we have 
>> noted
>> their special request and that we will accommodate it at the issuance phase 
>> of the
>> ticket process if we have 2-byte ASN available at that time.
>> 
>> Rate of issuance for 2-byte ASNs per month -
>> 
>>     1/2015: 68
>>     2/2015: 77
>>     3/2015: 74
>>     4/2015: 60
>>     5/2015: 7
>>     6/2015: 12
>>     7/2015: 16
>>     8/2015: 4
>>     9/2015: 7
>>     10/2015: 11
>>     11/2015: 7
>>     12/2015: 11
>>     1/2016: 5
>>     2/2016: 6
>>     3/2016: 13
>> 
>> A waiting list will only be applicable after depletion of the present 2-byte 
>> ASN inventory,
>> hence the following general run-out estimates are provided for consideration:
>> 
>>    - If we release all of the 2-byte ASNs from hold and issue ASNs strictly 
>> from smallest
>>      to largest, i.e. the practice prior to May 2015, it is likely that the 
>> current inventory of
>>      2-byte ASN’s would last somewhere between 6 to 12 months.
>> 
>>   -  If we continue the current approach (wherein 4-byte ASNs are issued by 
>> default and
>>      2-byte ASNs are only issued upon special request), the current 
>> inventory of 2-byte
>>      ASNs would appear to last for many years (5+ years at present rate).
>> 
>> I hope the above information helps in your policy development efforts!
>> 
>> Thank you,
>> /John
>> 
>> John Curran
>> President and CEO
>> American Registry for Internet Numbers (ARIN)
>> 
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