> https://netfilter.org/documentation/HOWTO/packet-filtering-HOWTO-6.html
> , are you saying
>
>     A program running on the box can send network packets. These packets
>     pass through the OUTPUT chain only if the INPUT chain allows it
>
> ?
>
> If you do, note my understanding of statement 4 at buttom of the link
> is different. Am I wrong?

You are correct. I was wrong.
You can even see it in the flow diagram I linked [1].
Thank you for pointing that out!

If it was on a separate router/firewall machine the reasoning would
hold, I think.
Please correct me if I am wrong!

I guess, it is back to not understanding why blocking inbound
connections would be a problem for outbound connections.

Best,
Christian

[1]: 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iptables#/media/File:Netfilter-packet-flow.svg

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