On Sun, Jun 23, 2024 at 1:20 AM <immortal.discover...@gmail.com> wrote: > > @Matt what year do you expect AGI? (which I classify as something that works on AI on its own but much faster due to having many copied clones and being a computer)
Every time you start a ChatGPT session, it creates a new copy so your data doesn't leak to other users. But my definition of AGI is the ability to do everything that humans can do. Not just the intellectual tasks, measured by the Turing test, but also vision, hearing, robotics, and all the skills needed to automate all work. The release of LLMs starting in November 2022 has so far had no effect on the economy (still growing 2-3% per year) or on the unemployment rate, still about 4% in the US. Using LLMs to automate work turns out to be much harder than passing the Turing test because the training data needed to do most office jobs isn't written down. It costs about 1% of lifetime earnings to train a new employee and that cost doesn't go away with AGI because the knowledge it needs is still contained within human brains with an I/O rate of 5 to 10 bits per second. AI isn't taking our jobs because we control it, using it to make us more productive, increasing our pay and making our work easier. AI makes stuff cheaper, so we have more money to spend on other stuff. That spending creates new opportunities. Job automation started in the 1950's with computers, but centuries earlier with simpler machines. Eventually AGI will do everything that humans can do, making us irrelevant. I don't think we want that to happen. We will reject AGI before it does, or evolution will reject it for us via population collapse. My prediction is AGI will not happen. > And what year do you expect heart attacks and cancer to be solves with drugs or something easy to do at home? We could solve aging using nanotechnology to repair our cells at the molecular level. But really, our bodies need to be completely redesigned. Evolution programmed us to reproduce and then die because that is the fastest way to propagate any species. As I mentioned, that technology is 70-80 years away at the rate of Moore's law. Meanwhile, medical costs are increasing exponentially, doubling every 9 years. Global life expectancy has been increasing linearly at a rate of 0.2 for the last century, slowing slightly since the 1970s in developed countries. Most of this improvement is from reducing deaths from war, famine, and infectious diseases like tuberculosis, smallpox, cholera, plague, polio, parasitic worms, etc. We can debate whether uploading is the same as human extinction. Suppose I presented you with a robot that looks and acts like you as far as anyone can tell, except maybe younger, stronger, smarter, happier, and with super powers like infrared vision, GPS and Wifi. Its mind is backed up to the cloud, so it is effectively immortal. Would you shoot yourself to complete the upload? Should the upload have the same rights as you, or should the company providing the service have the power to turn it off or update the software if something goes wrong? -- -- Matt Mahoney, mattmahone...@gmail.com ------------------------------------------ Artificial General Intelligence List: AGI Permalink: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/T9798384f526c07e8-M436ca97aba43da6bdf0d492e Delivery options: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/subscription
