Of course your conjecture is just Solomonoff induction. All of these model selection criteria are needed in practice because Solomonoff induction is not computable.
Encrypted data is not predictable by design, at least with practical computers. It's a good example of the limitations of machine learning. On Thu, Nov 21, 2019, 12:10 AM James Bowery <[email protected]> wrote: > There are various information criteria -- quoting from Wikipedia's > article on Model Selection > <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Model_selection#Criteria>: > > > - Akaike information criterion > <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Akaike_information_criterion> (AIC), a > measure of the goodness fit of an estimated statistical model > - Bayes factor <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes_factor> > - Bayesian information criterion > <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_information_criterion> (BIC), > also known as the Schwarz information criterion, a statistical criterion > for model selection > - Deviance information criterion > <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deviance_information_criterion> (DIC), > another Bayesian oriented model selection criterion > - Focused information criterion > <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Focused_information_criterion> (FIC), a > selection criterion sorting statistical models by their effectiveness for a > given focus parameter > - Hannan–Quinn information criterion > <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hannan%E2%80%93Quinn_information_criterion>, > an alternative to the Akaike and Bayesian criteria > - Kashyap information criterion > > <https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Kashyap_information_criterion&action=edit&redlink=1> > (KIC) > is a powerful alternative to AIC and BIC, because KIC uses Fisher > information matrix > - Minimum description length > <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minimum_description_length> > - Minimum message length > <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minimum_message_length> (MML) > - Watanabe–Akaike information criterion > > <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Watanabe%E2%80%93Akaike_information_criterion> > (WAIC), > also called the widely applicable information criterion > > > They all purport to formalize Ockham's Razor and, therefore, prevent > overfitting, by quantifying the information that goes into the model as > well as quantifying the information that goes into the model's error. The > sum of the two is a measure of information (e.g. "bits") used for model > selection: the model selection criterion. The two, taken together, are > also adequate to reproduce the original data -- if not without loss, then, > at least, without loss of whatever the particular criterion deems "noise". > > So, what do I mean by "Information MetaCriterion"? > > I mean to quantify the information that goes into the information > criterion so as to select the best information criterion. > > My conjecture is that the information criterion based on the length of the > executable archive of the dataset is the one requiring the least > information. > > The only open parameter of any "executable archive" is the underlying > UTM. > > What about the others? How can I make such a bold claim? > > Well, they all, have at least one other parameter: What they deem as > "noise". > > Why is this damning to them all? > > Consider RSA cyphertext of the sequence: > > 1111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111.... > > This cyphertext will _appear_ to be noise to all of them _except_ the to > the one based on "the smallest executable archive of the dataset", which > will consist of just the RSA algorithm, the private key, the count of 1s > and a for loop of that count generating the 1s. > > QED > *Artificial General Intelligence List <https://agi.topicbox.com/latest>* > / AGI / see discussions <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi> + > participants <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/members> + delivery > options <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/subscription> Permalink > <https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/T0fc0d7591fcf61c5-M9e330eb814a66ad721c95461> > ------------------------------------------ Artificial General Intelligence List: AGI Permalink: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/T0fc0d7591fcf61c5-Mfa547414881f52ef749bf64e Delivery options: https://agi.topicbox.com/groups/agi/subscription
