From the standpoint of UBNT stockholders and customers, specifically regarding supply chain impact, what matters (at least for now) is probably the actions being taken by the Chinese government to contain the virus. They have extended the Chinese New Year, we'll have to see if factories open back up tomorrow. They have cordoned off Wuhan and the surrounding province, apparently that is not one of the big electronics manufacturing centers though. Travel to and from other parts of Asia may be restricted, not sure the impact of that.
I assume Chinese New Year is built into the manufacturing plans, so some extra parts and finished goods may have been stockpiled or shipped in December. We'll probably have to see how much component and finished electronics manufacturing is impacted over the next couple months. It seems naïve to assume there will be no impact. On the other hand, they have an authoritarian government, failure may not be an option. If they can build a hospital in 10 days, maybe they can continue to build Ubiquiti radios. -----Original Message----- From: AF <af-boun...@af.afmug.com> On Behalf Of Bill Prince Sent: Sunday, February 9, 2020 4:58 PM To: AFMUG <af@af.afmug.com> Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Ubiquiti stock Here is a counterpoint. So far this season, 10,000 people have died in the US from the flu. That makes the score flu 10,000, coronavirus 0. https://www.pressenza.com/2020/02/the-flu-has-killed-10000-americans-this-season/ Maybe the appropriate action is (was?) to just get a flu shot. bp <part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com> On 2/7/2020 9:40 AM, Matt Hoppes wrote: > There have been two fatalities THAT WE KNOW OF. We've only just > started. It's been an extremely rough flu season here in the U.S.... > maybe it's not the flu? > > 2019-nCoV has a 14 week incubation period... meaning spreading is > happening before people even know it -- thus making this particularly > dangerous. > > In about the next two weeks we'll have a much better picture on what's > going on and what's going to be going on, but on CN and elsewhere in > the world. > > The problem right now is it takes 14 days to incubate and about 7 days > to get a report back on a positive/negative test culture, so there is > a very long lag and we are currently sitting in it. > > Now I ask you: is the reason there have only been 2 fatalities because > the health care systems are not yet overwhelmed elsewhere? > > On 2/7/20 12:34 PM, Bill Prince wrote: >> You don't have to "trust" the Chinese, but you can probably trust the >> reports from everywhere else. The fact is that there have been 2 >> fatalities outside of mainland China. >> >> Just stay away from bat soup. >> >> >> bp >> <part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com> >> >> On 2/7/2020 9:00 AM, Matt Hoppes wrote: >>> So let me get this straight. A virus that is not a big deal has >>> caused China to: >>> >>> Send the president into hiding >>> Build several emergency hospitals >>> Lock down major cities >>> Extend the CNY >>> In some cases barricade people in their homes Daily fumigation of >>> streets Crematories running 24x7 to burning the dead bodies People >>> being forcibly removed from their homes and taken into quarantine >>> Suspicious deaths around doctors revealing information Extreme China >>> censorship even to U. S. online forums >>> >>> China has also sent out a blank response to their citizens for >>> anyone dealing in international trade. If asked how things are going >>> they all respond with extremely similar answers about how everything >>> is contained in Wuhan and things are fine. Literally down to the >>> same wording in cases. >>> >>> Tell me. What does China know about this “not a big deal Virus” that >>> we don’t that they are willing to risk their economy? >>> >>> On Feb 7, 2020, at 11:29 AM, Bill Prince <part15...@gmail.com >>> <mailto:part15...@gmail.com>> wrote: >>> >>>> This thing is being overblown in a big way. First, the fatality >>>> rate is below 2% (which is pretty low as far as these things go). >>>> Second, the infectiousness is fairly low as well; somewhere between >>>> 1.5 and 3 (measles by comparison is rated at 15). >>>> >>>> So the virus is not all that infectious, and it is not all that fatal. >>>> >>>> Fear driven journalism. >>>> >>>> >>>> bp >>>> <part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com> >>>> >>>> On 2/7/2020 8:20 AM, Steve Jones wrote: >>>>> https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/b >>>>> da7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 >>>>> the map >>>>> >>>>> On Fri, Feb 7, 2020 at 10:19 AM Steve Jones >>>>> <thatoneguyst...@gmail.com <mailto:thatoneguyst...@gmail.com>> wrote: >>>>> >>>>> this is the Johns Hopkins map >>>>> Pretty much all the prediction models of global pandemic have >>>>> been wrong. Recoveries are out pacing deaths. It hasnt spread >>>>> outside china beyond the two people who had sex with people >>>>> who >>>>> had been infected in china. theyre offloading a cruise ship in >>>>> New Jersey today apparently so our numbers will have a small >>>>> jump. Its a 3rd world respiratory illness. chinese air is the >>>>> dirtiest on the planet. >>>>> I have a tool that shipped out of Wuhan a few weeks ago, i >>>>> will >>>>> lick it when it gets here and then come breath on people. >>>>> >>>>> UBNT probably is dropping because theyre not a CBRS LTE Player >>>>> and theyre kind of stagnant in general right now >>>>> >>>>> On Fri, Feb 7, 2020 at 10:10 AM Ken Hohhof <af...@kwisp.com >>>>> <mailto:af...@kwisp.com>> wrote: >>>>> >>>>> I don’t follow UBNT but I would have to guess it has >>>>> something to do with the Wuhan virus and the fact that all >>>>> their stuff is made in China? >>>>> >>>>> I have been tempted to post asking if any WISPs are >>>>> starting >>>>> to stockpile equipment that might be in short supply this >>>>> year. I know China will try not to let the virus impact >>>>> their manufacturing and exports, but it’s hard to see how >>>>> it >>>>> won’t. It could also spread to other countries in the >>>>> area >>>>> that do a lot of electronic component manufacturing and >>>>> assembly work. I have already seen some predictions that >>>>> TV >>>>> supplies may be affected. >>>>> >>>>> *From:* AF <af-boun...@af.afmug.com >>>>> <mailto:af-boun...@af.afmug.com>> *On Behalf Of *Rex-List >>>>> Account >>>>> *Sent:* Friday, February 7, 2020 9:58 AM >>>>> *To:* AF@af.afmug.com <mailto:AF@af.afmug.com> >>>>> *Subject:* [AFMUG] Ubiquiti stock >>>>> >>>>> What’s up with the Ubiguiti stock price drop? >>>>> >>>>> -- AF mailing list >>>>> AF@af.afmug.com <mailto:AF@af.afmug.com> >>>>> http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com >>>>> >>>>> >>>> -- >>>> AF mailing list >>>> AF@af.afmug.com <mailto:AF@af.afmug.com> >>>> http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com >>> >> -- AF mailing list AF@af.afmug.com http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com -- AF mailing list AF@af.afmug.com http://af.afmug.com/mailman/listinfo/af_af.afmug.com
